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This is stated in an article by Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs (London), which was published after the start of Russia's open aggression against Ukraine in the Sea of Azov, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

"The recent skirmish with Ukrainian vessels is part of the Kremlin's long-term efforts to destabilize Ukraine and consolidate its control over Crimea," Research Fellow Mathieu Boulegue writes.

The author states that recent events in the Azov Sea represent an escalation for Russia in the Sea of Azov, from air and sea provocations to direct military action against Ukrainian assets.

"Putting military pressure on Ukrainian assets in the Sea of Azov contributes to the Kremlin's long-term strategy of keeping Ukraine politically weak and divided, especially ahead of the March 2019 presidential elections. Provocations at sea help demoralize Ukrainian armed forces and the security establishment, who will be key constituents in next year's electoral cycle," the author of the article says.

According to the report, recent developments are also part of the Kremlin's wider strategy to turn the Black Sea into a "Russian lake" under its military dominance as well as to consolidate the claim that Crimea is a constituent part of the territory of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, Ukraine's policy options are limited.

"While martial law is unlikely to deter further Russian provocations, it will give Kyiv more expediency in military planning and operations," the researcher writes.

Among possible steps, Chatham House recommends that Ukraine increase its military footprint not just at sea but on land through coastal and air defense systems.

On November 26, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law approving a presidential decree on the introduction of martial law in Ukraine for 30 days in ten regions of the country, which was triggered by Russia's aggressive actions against Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait.



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